I can say with a pretty good amount of certainty that I won't be
around to see if my positions were correct...
.....so I guess I'll have to go with a cold cerveza rooting my Titans
this afternoon. Red wine would probably be a better choice, but
doesn't go with nachos!
John
John Spencer
BMS/ Chace LLC
email: [log in to unmask]
web: www.bmschace.com
On Jan 6, 2008, at 10:28 AM, Tom Fine wrote:
> Hi John:
>
> We are both speculating, heavily.
> I hope we are both around in 50 years to see if 5" digital reader/
> playback devices are still readily available. I would argue, they
> will be. I would say there is too much installed base all over the
> world not to make it a viable business model for decades more.
>
> But again, we are both speculating and only living 50 more years
> will give us the answer. I will toast both of our good health over
> a glass of red wine with dinner!
>
> --- Tom Fine
>
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Spencer"
> <[log in to unmask]>
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2008 10:05 AM
> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD-R question
>
>
>> Good Morning Tom,
>>
>> I don't think you snipped the point I was trying to make. Here is
>> a part of my post:
>>
>> <snip>
>>> The quality of the music may be better, but the quality of the
>>> media (as evidenced by the dumping of crappy CD-R media in every
>>> store, from Wal-Mart to Walgreens) does not relieve my confidence.
>> <snip>
>>
>> My point here is that if someone is going to use CD-R media,
>> PLEASE don't use the cheap-o stuff that you find literally
>> everywhere. Furthermore, make multiple copies if you can with
>> different batches of media. There have been many posts by experts
>> about good and bad media types.
>>
>> Regarding any difference of opinion we may have, please
>> understand that I am not advocating "managed storage with off-
>> site backup" for the casual collector that wants to digitize his
>> or her holdings. That's a pretty long leap from burning CD-Rs,
>> and not one that I would recommend given the scenario.
>> Additionally, I've never recommended people store files on hard
>> drives - BAD decision.
>>
>> The points I tried to make (and obviously didn't do a good job!)
>> were:
>>
>> 1. We don't have any idea if optical media PLAYERS will be
>> available in 50 years
>> 2. Even if I bought a pallet full of CD players, I cannot
>> guarantee they will operate in 50 years (even if I shrink-wrapped
>> a technician to store with them)
>> 3. The proliferation of various formats is not necessarily a good
>> thing (you mention photoCD, I could add many more)
>> 4. The CD players that are being built now are essentially "throw-
>> aways" (read - junk)
>>
>> As you mentioned, there are many "in the cloud" storage options
>> that could be considered as alternate backup locations (Amazon
>> S3, .mac accounts, etc.). They are popping up every day -
>> however, they too may go out of business and I'm out of
>> luck....but for now, they are realistic backup alternatives that
>> are extremely cheap. External drives as you mentioned are good as
>> well. In the archival world, I guess they call it "geographical
>> separation" - I would refer to it as "covering your backside".
>>
>> It is not a "Kia" vs. "Cadillac" scenario, there are many
>> "Chevrolet - Ford" solutions out there (but ouch, I hate making
>> digital storage comparisons to car manufacturers.....).
>>
>> At the end of the day, the collector that occasionally scans this
>> list and draws the conclusion that "make a CD-R and you'll be
>> fine" is, in my opinion, leaving with a misguided mandate.
>>
>> I have NO problem with well-made CD-Rs - but you have to factor
>> in the reality that you will probably have to migrate those as
>> well sometime, to whatever "flavor of the year" is regarding
>> digital storage available to the masses.
>>
>> Actively managed storage can take many forms, from full-scale
>> monoliths with high costs, to simply pulling the CD-Rs you have
>> off of the shelf every 3-5 years and bumping them to another batch.
>>
>> John Spencer
>> BMS/ Chace LLC
>> email: [log in to unmask]
>> web: www.bmschace.com
>>
>>
>>
>> On Jan 6, 2008, at 7:18 AM, Tom Fine wrote:
>>
>>> Hi John:
>>>
>>> Happy New Year all around.
>>>
>>> I think a big difference of opinion we have is that I think it's
>>> a Great Thing to have many different formats/standards for the
>>> 5" laser disc. To me, that's insurance that reader/playback
>>> drives will be made for a long time. The trend so far is that
>>> every time a new format/standard comes along, soon afterward the
>>> manufacturing MO becomes universal players/drive that read/play
>>> ALL previous formats. Look in a modern DVD player user manual
>>> and check out how many formats you can play on these things,
>>> including photoCD (something I'd argue is a fringe format that
>>> never really caught on with the masses) and data CD's full of
>>> MP3 and sometimes WinMedia files. And some players now accept
>>> flash media so you can take pix and video cards right out of
>>> your digi-camera and look at them right on your widescreen flat-
>>> panel (sometimes the flat-panels themselves take the cards
>>> directly). My point is, this is truly a massive Mass Market and
>>> it's not going to just dry up anytime soon. All these "issues"
>>> about the hi-def formats will get settled in the market and
>>> universal players will then quickly happen -- if that doesn't
>>> happen in a couple of years please regurgitate this message and
>>> tell me "I told you so."
>>>
>>> As for CDR media, I don't see what your issue is. Of course a
>>> long- term archive should be on migrated and mirrored hard
>>> drives nowadays. But CDR is cheap and available and I'd bet that
>>> higher- grade media will be OK in proper storage conditions as a
>>> backup. What is much more worrisome to me is a newcomer to this
>>> list getting an idea that CDR is a "bad format" and then doing a
>>> bunch of transfers onto a single hard drive and having all that
>>> work just blow up and be unusable one day. Hard drives are KNOWN
>>> to fail, and usually in a lot fewer than 10 years. CDR is
>>> THEORIZED to fail at some point (what exact point seems to be a
>>> matter of great debate) when stored under proper conditions (ie
>>> low dust, low light, low humiditiy, proper temp). So I would say
>>> to the small-scale archivist or collector -- most certainly do
>>> make liberal use of CDR media but don't rely on it as your ONLY
>>> digital format for the long- term. And for goodness sake, invest
>>> in a second disc drive and at least keep a local mirror of
>>> everything. You'll be so grateful when that computer konks out
>>> one day (hopefully the konk-out didn't take out your second hard
>>> drive, but my experience is you're relatively safe if the second
>>> drive is external -- barring something like a massive power
>>> problem or a house fire, of course).
>>>
>>> If you have an extensive investment of time or your transfers
>>> are of great monetary or cultural value, I'd argue that you
>>> gotta bite the bullet and go with managed storage with an off-
>>> site secure backup system in place. But this expensive/complex/
>>> industrial-grade solution is just not appropriate or in
>>> financial reach for most people on this list (ie small-scale
>>> archivists and collectors). One relatively cheap/easy thing to
>>> do if you have just a few real treasures among an otherwise
>>> ordinary collection of digital media is to simply FTP those
>>> treasures to your website if you have one. Most website hosts
>>> these days give you a 1 gig or more of storage as part of the
>>> package, and more gigs usually doesn't cost anything. The idea
>>> is, there's your remote backup. You of course can do much
>>> better, but this is the cheap/easy/available solution for the
>>> small archive or collector. Make the files inaccessible from
>>> your website if they have copyright or other sensitivities, of
>>> course. There are also plenty of 3rd parties online who offer
>>> free or near-free file storage. For instance, gmail and yahoo
>>> give you a 1 gig mailbox, so you can simply e-mail yourself a
>>> file or two. I'm sure this all sounds crazy to the inustrial-
>>> strength crowd, but like I said, most members of this list don't
>>> work for well-funded universities or professional data-management
>>> companies so they need small-scale/low-cost solutions. I'm
>>> throwing out some "Kia" ideas here. If you can afford
>>> "Cadillac," definitely go that way.
>>>
>>> -- Tom Fine
>>>
>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Spencer"
>>> <[log in to unmask]>
>>> To: <[log in to unmask]>
>>> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2008 10:17 PM
>>> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD-R question
>>>
>>>
>>> <snip>
>>>
>>>> Here's where we diverge on opinion - there are currently (I
>>>> think) 13 DVD specs (at least 6 of which are not recognized by
>>>> the DVD patent- holder consortium), and now we have blu-ray and
>>>> DVD-HD - a battle on many levels (one is the movie studios
>>>> desire to continue to have a physical disc to sell that is not
>>>> easily copied). This convoluted "soup" of formats
>>>> (notwithstanding patent issues) does not convince me that the
>>>> life of the CD will be greatly enhanced.
>>>>
>>> <snip>
>>>>
>>>> Best regards,
>>>> John
>>>>
>>>> John Spencer
>>>> BMS/ Chace LLC
>>>> 1801 8th Ave. S. Suite 200
>>>> Nashville, TN 37203
>>>> office (615) 385-1251
>>>> fax (615) 385-0153
>>>> cell (615) 714-1199
>>>> email: [log in to unmask]
>>>> web: www.bmschace.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Jan 5, 2008, at 8:15 PM, Tom Fine wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> You could think, once a medium goes out of "mass" status, how
>>>>> many years until all the playback equipment dies and nothing
>>>>> new is being made? Well, when exactly? LPs haven't been a
>>>>> mass medium for almost 2 decades now. Still plenty of
>>>>> turntables and cartridges available and the LP medium has a
>>>>> healthy niche (some could argue more economically viable than
>>>>> most CD releases). How about cassettes? They seem to be a
>>>>> quicker-to-the-grave medium. CD's passed cassettes in I
>>>>> believe the early 90's. But cassettes are still a mass medium
>>>>> in some parts of the 3rd world. You can still buy a variety of
>>>>> cassette decks and walkmans:
>>>>> http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_kk_1?ie=UTF8&search-alias=audio-
>>>>> video&field-keywords=cassette%20player
>>>>>
>>>>> Now, there's also the argument that magnetic tape and grooved
>>>>> disks are technologies that can be replicated with mid-20th
>>>>> century level or older technologies whereas CD playback is,
>>>>> well, somewhat akin to rocket science.
>>>>>
>>>>> But, 5" discs got another leg with the DVD medium and they
>>>>> might get yet another fresh wind with hi-def discs. Blowing
>>>>> the other way is the wind of downloads and iPods -- where
>>>>> there are not physical mass media but rather computer files
>>>>> transmitted over the Internet and then perhaps around homes
>>>>> to media-less playback systems. I don't doubt the future is
>>>>> one without packaged physical mass media for audio and video
>>>>> content, but it's not all there yet and the installed and
>>>>> owned base of 5" discs is enormous (I _think_ that more CD's
>>>>> were sold worldwide so far than all mesaured sales of all LPs
>>>>> since 1949 -- and that's not counting the fact that there
>>>>> might be a 1:1 ratio or greater of pressed CD's to legal or
>>>>> illegal copies that are essentially bit-by-bit replicas).
>>>>> Plus, as of now the quality of the 5" disc media is usually
>>>>> better than what you can get over the ether on your media-
>>>>> less playback system (that will not be true forever, indeed
>>>>> hopefully not for much longer).
>>>>>
>>>>> So bottom line, I'll give the 5" discs another 50 years of
>>>>> viability but I don't think they will be the dominant mass
>>>>> medium in the "first world" for too much longer -- and I
>>>>> think the places still cassette-dominant will leapfrog over
>>>>> the 5" disc media and go right to the over-ether media-less
>>>>> model. For what it's worth, I have a 1986 CD player that
>>>>> still works just fine. To my great joy, it was designed
>>>>> future-looking enough to be able to play most CDR media. The
>>>>> make is Teac and the price was not very high when I bought it
>>>>> as a poor college kid blowing some summer loot, so this was
>>>>> no high-grade special machine in its day. My point is, 20-
>>>>> year- old CD technology works fine in a modern context. I have
>>>>> no reason to believe my 2005 vintage Marantz SACD/DVD/CD
>>>>> player won't work in 20 years. That would get past the 50-
>>>>> year-viability mark for the CD medium (introduced 1982) and I
>>>>> betcha 5" disc players will be rolling off Asian assembly
>>>>> lines for at least another decade, probably longer.
>>>>>
>>>>> Let me just add that I think managed hard-drive-based
>>>>> archiving is a better idea nowadays and will be an ever-
>>>>> better idea as the storage media get cheaper, denser and
>>>>> hopefully more reliable.
>>>>>
>>>>> -- Tom Fine
>>>>>
>>>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Richard L. Hess"
>>>>> <[log in to unmask]>
>>>>> To: <[log in to unmask]>
>>>>> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2008 8:36 PM
>>>>> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD-R question
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> At 08:11 PM 2008-01-05, John Spencer wrote:
>>>>>>> Richard (and more so to Mr. Friedman),
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Do we have any concrete expectations that CD drives will be
>>>>>>> available
>>>>>>> in 50 years? Please point me to the information that
>>>>>>> guarantees that,
>>>>>>> I would be happy to be reassured that CD drives will be
>>>>>>> available
>>>>>>> then. I tend to be much more pessimistic about hardware/
>>>>>>> software
>>>>>>> availability given the 50-year target mentioned.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hi, John,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Happy New Year!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I think we'll be in as good or better shape playing back CDs
>>>>>> in 50 years as we will be playing back reel tapes in 35-40
>>>>>> years which is approx the 50-year time frame that LoC was
>>>>>> still advocating transfers to 2-track tapes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There are just too many, and they're not going to all break.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> As with any media, as the supply of machines dries up it's
>>>>>> the archive's responsibility to migrate/reformat before they
>>>>>> cannot. I think we've had this discussion before <smile>.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Richard
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Richard L. Hess email: [log in to unmask]
>>>>>> Aurora, Ontario, Canada (905) 713 6733 1-877-TAPE-FIX
>>>>>> Detailed contact information: http://www.richardhess.com/
>>>>>> tape/ contact.htm
>>>>>> Quality tape transfers -- even from hard-to-play tapes.
>>>>>
>>>
>
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