Several of you wrote,

Richard (and more so to Mr. Friedman),

Do we have any concrete expectations that CD drives will be available  
in 50 years? Please point me to the information that guarantees that,  
I would be happy to be reassured that CD drives will be available  
then. I tend to be much more pessimistic about hardware/ software  
availability given the 50-year target mentioned.

I think the context of Howard's question - "all other things being  
equal" is a gamble at best.

> So, I do think that it is not as safe to leave a non-mainstream CD  
> around in an archive.

I agree with your statement wholeheartedly.

Best,
John

John Spencer
BMS/ Chace LLC
1801 8th Ave. S.  Suite 200
Nashville, TN 37203
office (615) 385-1251
fax (615) 385-0153
cell (615) 714-1199
email: [log in to unmask]
web: www.bmschace.com



On Jan 5, 2008, at 3:52 PM, Richard L. Hess wrote:

> At 04:21 PM 2008-01-05, Howard Friedman wrote:
>> And are you saying that a 534 minute CD will not survive as long  
>> as an 80 minute CD, all other things being equal?
>
> That is an interesting question. I would suspect that the  
> likelihood of the 80-minute CD being useable is higher than the 534  
> minute CD because in 50 years someone will try and play both in a  
> CD player and when one plays and the other one doesn't they may  
> assume that the one that doesn't play is no good and dispose of it.
>
> I realize that putting it into a PC drive and reading it would  
> quickly educate the user, but I fear the least-common denominator  
> when it comes to technical savvy in at least some archives. Many  
> archivists try very hard to keep up with the technology, but  
> archivist salaries are, sadly, rather small in many places and  
> their workload is heavy.
>
> When tapes started to squeal, many got dumpstered as "unplayable"  
> with no recovery attempt made.
>
> So, I do think that it is not as safe to leave a non-mainstream CD  
> around in an archive.
>
> As to the survival of the two from a photo-chemical perspective, I  
> think that Jerry has provided information about what that depends  
> on. Disc type, storage conditions, and quality fo writer are all key.
>
> The other thing to worry about with the compressed audio CD-ROM is  
> that you will need to have the proper codec to extract the  
> compressed files. With WAV files, while you need a codec, it is the  
> simplest variety. MP3 will be decodable, I suspect, longer than  
> many other formats.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Richard
>
> Richard L. Hess                   email: [log in to unmask]
> Aurora, Ontario, Canada       (905) 713 6733     1-877-TAPE-FIX
> Detailed contact information: http://www.richardhess.com/tape/ 
> contact.htm
> Quality tape transfers -- even from hard-to-play tapes.

But it is difficult to follow the individual threads when you append one to another.  As for Cd drives in 50 years, I have a Pathé cylinder player (1900?), three multi-speed turntables (60-90 rpm, Garrard 401 [1975], Thorens Mk 124 [1985], Esoteric CVS 14, [2000]), and two CD/DVD players, the latter in my computer.  Which one will last the longest is anyone's guess.  But they are all operable now.

Howard