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From: Patent Tactics, George Brock-Nannestad

Hi,

I do not think my media will fit your players - my CDs only measure 12 cm in 
diameter, but your players apparently are made for 5".

Kind regards,


George

> Hi John:
> 
> We are both speculating, heavily.
> 
> I hope we are both around in 50 years to see if 5" digital reader/playback
> devices are still readily 
> available. I would argue, they will be. I would say there is too much
> installed base all over the 
> world not to make it a viable business model for decades more.
> 
> But again, we are both speculating and only living 50 more years will give
> us the answer. I will 
> toast both of our good health over a glass of red wine with dinner!
> 
> --- Tom Fine
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "John Spencer" <[log in to unmask]>
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2008 10:05 AM
> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD-R question
> 
> 
> > Good Morning Tom,
> >
> > I don't think you snipped the point I was trying to make. Here is a  part
> of my post:
> >
> > <snip>
> >> The quality of the music may be better, but the quality of the  media (as
> evidenced by the 
> >> dumping of crappy CD-R media in every  store, from Wal-Mart to Walgreens)
> does not relieve my 
> >> confidence.
> > <snip>
> >
> > My point here is that if someone is going to use CD-R media, PLEASE  don't
> use the cheap-o stuff 
> > that you find literally everywhere.  Furthermore, make multiple copies if
> you can with different 
> > batches  of media. There have been many posts by experts about good and
> bad  media types.
> >
> > Regarding any difference of opinion we may have, please understand  that I
> am not advocating 
> > "managed storage with off-site backup" for  the casual collector that
> wants to digitize his or her 
> > holdings.  That's a pretty long leap from burning CD-Rs, and not one that
> I  would recommend given 
> > the scenario. Additionally, I've never  recommended people store files on
> hard drives - BAD 
> > decision.
> >
> > The points I tried to make (and obviously didn't do a good job!) were:
> >
> > 1. We don't have any idea if optical media PLAYERS will be available  in
> 50 years
> > 2. Even if I bought a pallet full of CD players, I cannot guarantee  they
> will operate in 50 years 
> > (even if I shrink-wrapped a technician  to store with them)
> > 3. The proliferation of various formats is not necessarily a good  thing
> (you mention photoCD, I 
> > could add many more)
> > 4. The CD players that are being built now are essentially "throw- aways"
> (read - junk)
> >
> > As you mentioned, there are many "in the cloud" storage options that 
> could be considered as 
> > alternate backup locations (Amazon S3, .mac  accounts, etc.). They are
> popping up every day - 
> > however, they too  may go out of business and I'm out of luck....but for
> now, they are  realistic 
> > backup alternatives that are extremely cheap. External  drives as you
> mentioned are good as well. 
> > In the archival world, I  guess they call it "geographical separation" - I
> would refer to it as 
> > "covering your backside".
> >
> > It is not a "Kia" vs. "Cadillac" scenario, there are many "Chevrolet  -
> Ford" solutions out there 
> > (but ouch, I hate making digital storage  comparisons to car
> manufacturers.....).
> >
> > At the end of the day, the collector that occasionally scans this  list
> and draws the conclusion 
> > that "make a CD-R and you'll be fine"  is, in my opinion, leaving with a
> misguided mandate.
> >
> > I have NO problem with well-made CD-Rs - but you have to factor in  the
> reality that you will 
> > probably have to migrate those as well  sometime, to whatever "flavor of
> the year" is regarding 
> > digital  storage available to the masses.
> >
> > Actively managed storage can take many forms, from full-scale  monoliths
> with high costs, to 
> > simply pulling the CD-Rs you have off  of the shelf every 3-5 years and
> bumping them to another 
> > batch.
> >
> > John Spencer
> > BMS/ Chace LLC
> > email: [log in to unmask]
> > web: www.bmschace.com
> >
> >
> >
> > On Jan 6, 2008, at 7:18 AM, Tom Fine wrote:
> >
> >> Hi John:
> >>
> >> Happy New Year all around.
> >>
> >> I think a big difference of opinion we have is that I think it's a  Great
> Thing to have many 
> >> different formats/standards for the 5"  laser disc. To me, that's
> insurance that reader/playback 
> >> drives  will be made for a long time. The trend so far is that every time
> a  new format/standard 
> >> comes along, soon afterward the manufacturing  MO becomes universal
> players/drive that read/play 
> >> ALL previous  formats.  Look in a modern DVD player user manual and check
> out how  many formats 
> >> you can play on these things, including photoCD  (something I'd argue is
> a fringe format that 
> >> never really caught on  with the masses) and data CD's full of MP3 and
> sometimes WinMedia  files. 
> >> And some players now accept flash media so you can take pix  and video
> cards right out of your 
> >> digi-camera and look at them  right on your widescreen flat-panel
> (sometimes the flat-panels 
> >> themselves take the cards directly). My point is, this is truly a 
> massive Mass Market and it's 
> >> not going to just dry up anytime soon.  All these "issues" about the
> hi-def formats will get 
> >> settled in the  market and universal players will then quickly happen --
> if that  doesn't happen 
> >> in a couple of years please regurgitate this message  and tell me "I told
> you so."
> >>
> >> As for CDR media, I don't see what your issue is. Of course a long- term
> archive should be on 
> >> migrated and mirrored hard drives  nowadays. But CDR is cheap and
> available and I'd bet that 
> >> higher- grade media will be OK in proper storage conditions as a backup. 
> What is much more 
> >> worrisome to me is a newcomer to this list  getting an idea that CDR is a
> "bad format" and then 
> >> doing a bunch  of transfers onto a single hard drive and having all that
> work just  blow up and 
> >> be unusable one day. Hard drives are KNOWN to fail, and  usually in a lot
> fewer than 10 years. 
> >> CDR is THEORIZED to fail at  some point (what exact point seems to be a
> matter of great debate) 
> >> when stored under proper conditions (ie low dust, low light, low 
> humiditiy, proper temp). So I 
> >> would say to the small-scale  archivist or collector -- most certainly do
> make liberal use of CDR 
> >> media but don't rely on it as your ONLY digital format for the long-
> term. And for goodness sake, 
> >> invest in a second disc drive and at  least keep a local mirror of
> everything. You'll be so 
> >> grateful when  that computer konks out one day (hopefully the konk-out
> didn't take  out your 
> >> second hard drive, but my experience is you're relatively  safe if the
> second drive is 
> >> external -- barring something like a  massive power problem or a house
> fire, of course).
> >>
> >> If you have an extensive investment of time or your transfers are  of
> great monetary or cultural 
> >> value, I'd argue that you gotta bite  the bullet and go with managed
> storage with an off-site 
> >> secure  backup system in place. But this
> expensive/complex/industrial-grade  solution is just not 
> >> appropriate or in financial reach for most  people on this list (ie
> small-scale archivists and 
> >> collectors). One  relatively cheap/easy thing to do if you have just a
> few real  treasures among 
> >> an otherwise ordinary collection of digital media  is to simply FTP those
> treasures to your 
> >> website if you have one.  Most website hosts these days give you a 1 gig
> or more of storage  as 
> >> part of the package, and more gigs usually doesn't cost  anything. The
> idea is, there's your 
> >> remote backup. You of course  can do much better, but this is the
> cheap/easy/available solution 
> >> for the small archive or collector. Make the files inaccessible  from
> your website if they have 
> >> copyright or other sensitivities, of  course. There are also plenty of
> 3rd parties online who 
> >> offer free  or near-free file storage. For instance, gmail and yahoo give
> you a  1 gig mailbox, 
> >> so you can simply e-mail yourself a file or two. I'm  sure this all
> sounds crazy to the 
> >> inustrial-strength crowd, but  like I said, most members of this list
> don't work for well-funded 
> >> universities or professional data-management companies so they need 
> small-scale/low-cost 
> >> solutions. I'm throwing out some "Kia" ideas  here. If you can afford
> "Cadillac," definitely go 
> >> that way.
> >>
> >> -- Tom Fine
> >>
> >> ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Spencer" 
> <[log in to unmask]>
> >> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> >> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2008 10:17 PM
> >> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD-R question
> >>
> >>
> >> <snip>
> >>
> >>> Here's where we diverge on opinion - there are currently (I think)  13 
> DVD specs (at least 6 of 
> >>> which are not recognized by the DVD  patent- holder consortium), and now
> we have blu-ray and 
> >>> DVD-HD - a  battle on  many levels (one is the movie studios desire to 
> continue to have a 
> >>> physical disc to sell that is not easily  copied). This convoluted 
> "soup" of formats 
> >>> (notwithstanding  patent issues) does not convince  me that the life of
> the CD will  be greatly 
> >>> enhanced.
> >>>
> >> <snip>
> >>>
> >>> Best regards,
> >>> John
> >>>
> >>> John Spencer
> >>> BMS/ Chace LLC
> >>> 1801 8th Ave. S.  Suite 200
> >>> Nashville, TN 37203
> >>> office (615) 385-1251
> >>> fax (615) 385-0153
> >>> cell (615) 714-1199
> >>> email: [log in to unmask]
> >>> web: www.bmschace.com
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> On Jan 5, 2008, at 8:15 PM, Tom Fine wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> You could think, once a medium goes out of "mass" status, how  many 
> years until all the 
> >>>> playback equipment dies and nothing new  is  being made? Well, when
> exactly? LPs haven't been a 
> >>>> mass  medium for  almost 2 decades now. Still plenty of turntables and 
> cartridges  available 
> >>>> and the LP medium has a healthy niche (some  could argue  more
> economically viable than most CD 
> >>>> releases). How  about cassettes? They seem to be a quicker-to-the-grave
> medium.  CD's  passed 
> >>>> cassettes in I believe the early 90's. But cassettes  are  still a mass
> medium in some parts of 
> >>>> the 3rd world. You can  still buy a variety of cassette decks and
> walkmans:
> >>>> http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_kk_1?ie=UTF8&search-alias=audio- 
> >>>> video&field-keywords=cassette%20player
> >>>>
> >>>> Now, there's also the argument that magnetic tape and grooved  disks 
> are technologies that can 
> >>>> be replicated with mid-20th  century level  or older technologies
> whereas CD playback is, 
> >>>> well, somewhat akin  to rocket science.
> >>>>
> >>>> But, 5" discs got another leg with the DVD medium and they might   get
> yet another fresh wind 
> >>>> with hi-def discs. Blowing the other  way  is the wind of downloads and
> iPods -- where there 
> >>>> are not  physical  mass media but rather computer files transmitted
> over  the Internet  and 
> >>>> then perhaps around homes to media-less  playback systems. I  don't
> doubt the future is one 
> >>>> without  packaged physical mass media  for audio and video content, but
> it's not all there yet 
> >>>> and the  installed and owned base of 5"  discs is enormous (I _think_
> that  more CD's were sold 
> >>>> worldwide  so far than all mesaured sales of all  LPs since 1949 -- and
> that's not counting 
> >>>> the fact that there might be a 1:1 ratio or  greater of pressed CD's to
> legal or illegal 
> >>>> copies that are  essentially bit-by-bit replicas). Plus, as of now  the
> quality of  the 5" disc 
> >>>> media is usually better than what you  can get over  the ether on your
> media-less playback 
> >>>> system (that  will not be  true forever, indeed hopefully not for much
> longer).
> >>>>
> >>>> So bottom line, I'll give the 5" discs another 50 years of   viability
> but I don't think they 
> >>>> will be the dominant mass  medium  in the "first world" for too much
> longer -- and I think  the 
> >>>> places still cassette-dominant will leapfrog over the 5" disc  media
> and go  right to the 
> >>>> over-ether media-less model. For what  it's worth, I  have a 1986 CD
> player that still works 
> >>>> just fine.  To my great joy,  it was designed future-looking enough to
> be  able to play most 
> >>>> CDR  media. The make is Teac and the price was  not very high when I 
> bought it as a poor 
> >>>> college kid blowing  some summer loot, so this  was no high-grade
> special machine in  its day. 
> >>>> My point is, 20-year- old CD technology works fine in a  modern
> context. I have no reason  to 
> >>>> believe my 2005 vintage  Marantz SACD/DVD/CD player won't work in  20
> years. That would  get 
> >>>> past the 50-year-viability mark for the CD  medium  (introduced 1982)
> and I betcha 5" disc 
> >>>> players will be  rolling  off Asian assembly lines for at least another
> decade,  probably 
> >>>> longer.
> >>>>
> >>>> Let me just add that I think managed hard-drive-based archiving  is  a
> better idea nowadays and 
> >>>> will be an ever-better idea as  the  storage media get cheaper, denser
> and hopefully more 
> >>>> reliable.
> >>>>
> >>>> -- Tom Fine
> >>>>
> >>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Richard L. Hess"  
> <[log in to unmask]>
> >>>> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> >>>> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2008 8:36 PM
> >>>> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD-R question
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>> At 08:11 PM 2008-01-05, John Spencer wrote:
> >>>>>> Richard (and more so to Mr. Friedman),
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Do we have any concrete expectations that CD drives will be  
> available
> >>>>>> in 50 years? Please point me to the information that  guarantees 
> that,
> >>>>>> I would be happy to be reassured that CD drives will be available
> >>>>>> then. I tend to be much more pessimistic about hardware/ software
> >>>>>> availability given the 50-year target mentioned.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Hi, John,
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Happy New Year!
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I think we'll be in as good or better shape playing back CDs in  50 
> years as we will be 
> >>>>> playing back reel tapes in 35-40 years  which  is approx the 50-year
> time frame that LoC was 
> >>>>> still  advocating  transfers to 2-track tapes.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> There are just too many, and they're not going to all break.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> As with any media, as the supply of machines dries up it's the  
> archive's responsibility to 
> >>>>> migrate/reformat before they cannot.  I  think we've had this
> discussion before <smile>.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Cheers,
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Richard
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Richard L. Hess                   email: [log in to unmask]
> >>>>> Aurora, Ontario, Canada       (905) 713 6733     1-877-TAPE-FIX
> >>>>> Detailed contact information: http://www.richardhess.com/tape/ 
> contact.htm
> >>>>> Quality tape transfers -- even from hard-to-play tapes.
> >>>>
> >>
> >