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Here are two more reasons Jay is correct:

1. it is probably the end of the line for R&D into physical digital media. The SACD never caught on 
and BluRay is not catching on and probably won't to the extent of CD and DVD. There is a massive 
installed base of CD playback equipment, in most computers and in most cars. So, for now and likely 
forever, CD will be the go-to medium for physical audio products. Its market share for new music 
purchases and for audiobooks will probably continue to erode, but my bet is that millions of CDs 
will still be manufactured each year for decades hence.

2. the record companies have the majority of their marketable catalog stored in forms easily 
mastered and manufactured to CD. An engineer at Sony showed me how easy it is to make their 
discount-priced "Playlist" compliations. He is assigned a running order by the series producer 
(usually a freelancer working for very little pay, perhaps collecting a little bit extra by writing 
the brief liner notes). Sony has a worldwide database of all individual songs in their massive 
redundant digital library. They now have in this library digital master files going back to the dawn 
of CDs thru their current high-resolution archival formats. The engineer searches the database, 
locates the song files he needs and puts in a download cue request. A couple of hours later, all the 
44.1/16 files are loaded into his workstation. He then does whatever tweaking (usually just RMS 
level normalizing) and authors a Red Book CD. There is a standardized archive file format that 
encompasses the audio, PQ codes and whatever else is required by the plant. That single file 
(somewhat akin to a ZIP archive) is then uploaded to the manufacturing plant and the CD is put into 
the production schedule. There is no other format that can be mass distributed so efficiently, and 
the record companies have spent 30 decades now taking cost out of the system.

So from the user end and the manufacturer end, there is a not a full replacement for CDs, so the 
format will hang on for a long time. I do think, however, that the universe of material available on 
CD will shrink around the edges as time goes on. The material that can't profitably be marketed on 
CD may find a workable niche in downloads, and in fact there may emerge a model where a new remaster 
or new transfer never is sold on CD (although that model has not emerged yet -- nearly everything 
with a budget to be remastered gets put out on CD at one time or another, because the CD sales are 
needed to recoup the cost of the remastering).

-- Tom Fine

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Music Hunter" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Saturday, May 17, 2014 10:00 AM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD and DVD player)?


>I don't think " many " is correct as compared to some.
>
> On the coin's other side, we booked our largest single order from a public
> library in our history in April '14. The library in question is located
> in..... WASHINGTON, D.C. AND THE ORDER WAS APPROXIMATELY $ 30k
>
> Those hovering around the CD's coffin will have a long wait my friends.
>
> Your search for sound & video ends here!
> Jay Sonin, General Manager
> Music Hunter Distributing Company
> 4880 North Citation Drive, Suite # 101
> Delray Beach, Florida 33445-6552
> [log in to unmask]
> 561-450-7152
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Association for Recorded Sound Discussion List
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Roger Kulp
> Sent: Saturday, May 17, 2014 7:42 AM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD
> and DVD player)?
>
> Many public libraries are ditching physical media for downloads from
> clouds.Here is an example from the Washington,DC library system.
> http://dclibrary.org/downloads
>
> Roger
>
>
>> Date: Fri, 16 May 2014 09:34:04 -0400
>> From: [log in to unmask]
>> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD
> and DVD player)?
>> To: [log in to unmask]
>>
>> Jay, for libraries, what's the alternative? Despite the drawbacks
>> (mainly the fact that librarians and customers tend to rough-handle 5"
>> discs so they become unusable relatively quickly), US copyright laws make
> other alternatives non-viable for many libraries and patrons.
>>
>> I hate to say something too nice about cassettes, but those were the
>> most bullet-proof library-circulation medium. The local librarians are
>> forever bitching about how quickly expensive audiobooks get unusable
> because one CD out of many has been ruined by a clumsy patron or librarian.
>> They tell me that in the cassette era, it was rare to have to replace
>> a tape. The audiobook publishers are not always cooperative about
>> replacing a single CD. It's the same with music -- one jerk can wreck
>> a CD in his car with one careless handling move, and then the library has
> to pay full frieght to replace it. Cassettes were harder to render unusable,
> as bad as they sounded.
>>
>> I was thinking about doing the following as charity for my local
>> library system:  having a bunch of rolls of stickers printed up that
>> list concise and clearly-stated guidelines for handling CDs -- don't
>> touch the surface, don't put the disc face-down on a surface, don't
>> scrape the disc over any rough surfaces, insert and remove from players
> carefully, etc -- and handing out rolls of stickers to each library in the
> system so they can stick them on CD cases.
>>
>> Same points apply to DVDs, but even more so since they become
>> completely useless when they're scratched up.
>>
>> -- Tom Fine
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Music Hunter" <[log in to unmask]>
>> To: <[log in to unmask]>
>> Sent: Friday, May 16, 2014 9:23 AM
>> Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD
> and DVD player)?
>>
>>
>> > Hi Tom,
>> >
>> > I can tell you that our CD/DVD sales to libraries are better than
>> > ever, literally great.
>> >
>> > Jay
>> >
>> > Your search for sound & video ends here!
>> > Jay Sonin, General Manager
>> > Music Hunter Distributing Company
>> > 4880 North Citation Drive, Suite # 101 Delray Beach, Florida
>> > 33445-6552 [log in to unmask]
>> > 561-450-7152
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: Association for Recorded Sound Discussion List
>> > [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Tom Fine
>> > Sent: Friday, May 16, 2014 8:58 AM
>> > To: [log in to unmask]
>> > Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and
>> > the CD and DVD player)?
>> >
>> > Hi Jay:
>> >
>> > We keep hearing pundits and prognosticators talk about the "coming
>> > end of physical media," but as you say the record companies keep
> cranking out CDs.
>> > As far as I know Sony, and maybe other record companies, still own
>> > and operate CD manufacturing plants, so it may be in their interest
>> > to keep CDs going at least until plants and equipment are well
> amortized.
>> >
>> > Also, can anyone point to a musician or group that garnered
>> > tremendous radio play and/or record-music sales WITHOUT a CD
>> > release? Yes, you can break through with a song made in your
>> > basement and placed on YouTube, and you may sell a few thousand
>> > downloads DIY'ing it through iTunes (and make a few thousand pennies
>> > on the deal), but I think you still need physical media for mass
>> > market penetration. I may be wrong on that, but I'd like to hear some
> specific facts and examples that prove me wrong.
>> >
>> > Now here's what's changed. If you're Led Zeppelin in the late 1990s,
>> > you get together with a remastering engineer, comb your vaults and
>> > maybe put out "Anniversary Edition" multi-CD sets with some studio
>> > out-takes and some new artwork. You could count on brisk sales,
>> > because the first CD edition of your albums probably sounded like
>> > garbage and probably wasn't cut from the first-generation master
>> > tape.  Fast forward to 2014, and you can't just do a CD release. You
> need to go multi-media:
>> > http://www.ledzeppelin.com/buy/
>> > I think it's called "multi-platform" nowadays. At multiple price
>> > points, with multiple content configurations. There is a download
>> > component, but notice that it's in the background with the
>> > marketing. Physical products are still front and center.
>> >
>> > What I'm not so sure about is, how does this all play out with
>> > less-mainstream (ie slower-selling) artists and genres. In classical
>> > and jazz, the strategy in recent years has been to stick with CDs
>> > but greatly reduce the price-per-disc of content. So you have, for
>> > instance, the Mercury and Decca and RCA box sets selling for less
>> > than $2 per disc, vs. more than
>> > $10 per disc when the material was originally released in
>> > single-disc format. At these price points, forget about margin for
>> > deluxe remastering like Led Zep can do. The most popular classical
>> > and jazz titles, the ones proven popular over time and the rare
>> > break-out "hit" of more recent vintage, do present a business model
>> > enabling high-resolution mastering and multi-format sales.
>> >
>> > I know from experience that these record companies watch the money
>> > like hawks, and if something is out of print or hasn't been
>> > remastered since the dawn of CDs, it's because their previous sales
>> > figures and future sales projections tell them it won't be
>> > profitable to go any further with that content. Sometimes, there is
>> > a niche player like a 3rd party vinyl reissuer, who can make hay
>> > with specific titles ignored by the parent company, but these are
> exceptions to the rule.
>> >
>> > Long and short, I think you'll be selling CDs well into old age, but
>> > it's entirely possible that the universe of available content on CD
>> > will shrink over time.
>> >
>> > -- Tom Fine
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Music Hunter" <[log in to unmask]>
>> > To: <[log in to unmask]>
>> > Sent: Friday, May 16, 2014 7:57 AM
>> > Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and
>> > the CD and DVD player)?
>> >
>> >
>> >> Hi Tom & friends,
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Is there any evidence pointing to that happening?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> I am still enjoying CDs obtained when CDs were first introduced in
>> >> the
>> > early
>> >> '80's with no sign of self-degrading in over 30 years. I'm trying
>> >> to think of what other products we have that have that still work
>> >> as well as they
>> > did
>> >> when brand new.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Talk about value...
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Jay
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Your search for sound & video ends here!
>> >>
>> >> Jay Sonin, General Manager
>> >> Music Hunter Distributing Company
>> >> 4880 North Citation Drive, Suite # 101 Delray Beach, Florida
>> >> 33445-6552 [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>> >> 561-450-7152
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> From: Stephen Thomson Moore [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
>> >> Sent: Friday, May 16, 2014 7:33 AM
>> >> To: Wagstaff, D John; Edmonds, Amy; [log in to unmask]
>> >> Subject: Re: [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD and
>> >> DVD player)?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Dear all,
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Another concern with the end of the CD and DVD seems to be that our
>> > immense
>> >> collections of Cds will self-degrade and be nothing more than shiny
>> >> discs
>> > in
>> >> a few short years. What about that?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Best, Tom Moore
>> >>
>> >> FIU
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> From: <Wagstaff>, D John <[log in to unmask]>
>> >> Reply-To: "Wagstaff, D John" <[log in to unmask]>
>> >> Date: Thursday, May 15, 2014 5:54 PM
>> >> To: "Edmonds, Amy" <[log in to unmask]>, "[log in to unmask]"
>> >> <[log in to unmask]>
>> >> Subject: [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD and DVD
>> > player)?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> I think maybe the issue is that, once we reach a tipping point with
>> > e-books,
>> >> the publishers might decide to move to an I-Tunes account-type
>> > distribution
>> >> model, i.e. a "one individual/one account, no libraries need apply
>> >> thank
>> > you
>> >> very much have a nice day but get lost". We're already seeing this
>> >> with
>> > some
>> >> textbooks, after all. Print surrogates will then become impossible
>> >> to obtain, libraries are cut out of the equation, and first-sale
>> >> doctrine is sacrificed to licensing agreements.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> I don't write this in a "the-publisher-is-the-enemy" spirit, they
>> >> clearly are only trying to make money and keep their businesses
>> >> afloat, and
>> > arguably
>> >> if the roles were reversed we'd be doing the same. But I suspect
>> >> that
>> > that's
>> >> definitely the commercial motivation behind the push towards e-books.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> John
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> John Wagstaff
>> >>
>> >> Head, Music & Performing Arts Library
>> >>
>> >> Interim Head, Literatures and Languages Library
>> >>
>> >> University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
>> >>
>> >> 1114 W. Nevada Street
>> >>
>> >> Urbana IL61801
>> >>
>> >> Tel. 217-244-4070
>> >>
>> >> e-mail: [log in to unmask]
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> From: Edmonds, Amy [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
>> >> Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2014 4:40 PM
>> >> To: [log in to unmask]
>> >> Subject: [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD and DVD
>> > player)?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> The same thing that makes it easy to crank out e-books makes it
>> >> easy to publish in paper!  Why are they whining?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> I do read quite a bit on my kindle but for anything that I will be
>> >> working with intellectually, I have to be able to put my sticky
>> >> notes in it
>> > (shhh!)
>> >> and flip through the pages at will for the bits that I will
>> >> recognize visually but can't remember well enough to do a good search
> on a device.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> From: Wagstaff, D John [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
>> >> Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2014 5:09 PM
>> >> To: Stephen Thomson Moore; [log in to unmask]
>> >> Subject: [MLA-L] RE: the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD and DVD
>> > player)?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> To answer this question I'd pose another, which is: For how many
>> >> years
>> > have
>> >> we been seeing magazines with the question "Is this the year of the
>> > e-book?"
>> >> on their cover? (my answer: at least 15, and my answer is always
>> >> "no"). In spite of publishers really, really wanting to push
>> >> e-books, we're still a long way from having anything like a decent
>> >> amount of e-books to offer in the performing arts.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> IMHO.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> John
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> From: Stephen Thomson Moore [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
>> >> Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2014 7:09 AM
>> >> To: [log in to unmask]
>> >> Subject: [MLA-L] the end of the CD and DVD (and the CD and DVD player)?
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Dear CW,
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Have you all seen any responsible prognostication on what the time
>> >> frame might be for the end of CD as a commercial format for music,
>> >> and of the
>> > DVD
>> >> as a commercial format for video? Do you individually have any wise
>> >> words
>> > in
>> >> this regard? I already heard in 1995 that the CD would soon be
>> >> history
>> > (not
>> >> yet).
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Inquiringly, Tom Moore
>> >>
>> >> FIU
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>
>
>